{"id":85203,"date":"2023-05-26T07:06:51","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T07:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theoutlier.co.za\/?p=84550"},"modified":"2025-11-17T17:42:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T17:42:01","slug":"what-a-young-population-means-for-africa-in-7-charts-and-a-map","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/2023\/05\/26\/what-a-young-population-means-for-africa-in-7-charts-and-a-map\/","title":{"rendered":"What a young population means for Africa in 7 charts and a map"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Half of the people living in Africa are 19 years old or younger, which makes it the youngest continent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With an average birth rate of 4.4 children per woman, its population is projected to nearly triple by the end of the century. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This means Africa should be primed for economic growth with a young and expanding workforce, compared with countries like Japan and Italy where half the population is in their late forties or older.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2021 India and China each had roughly the same number of people as the entire African continent (1.4-billion). With young populations and high fertility rates, the populations of many African countries are growing rapidly. But does size matter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2018China has taken advantage of its immensity to change the world more than any other nation over the past generation. Will India do the same in the next generation to come?\u2019 was a question asked in a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/04\/19\/world\/asia\/india-china-population.html\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/04\/19\/world\/asia\/india-china-population.html?campaign_id=51&amp;emc=edit_mbe_20230420&amp;instance_id=90615&amp;nl=morning-briefing%3A-europe-edition&amp;regi_id=178144452&amp;segment_id=130869&amp;te=1&amp;user_id=d83916b7a7753df65b13d416073db0d3\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times<\/a> article in April 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We could ask the same question of Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s gross domestic product started to increase rapidly in the 1990s, shortly after its population had reached 1-billion. Comparing the GDP per capita of China with the three African countries \u2013 and adding India and South Africa for context \u2013 it\u2019s clear that China\u2019s meteoric economic growth since the 1990s is about more than simply a massive workforce. India&#8217;s population reached 1-billion in 1997, , according to the UN\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\">World Population Prospects data<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/GDP-per-capital-1-600x600.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85216\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Apart from China and India, there were 12 countries estimated to have 100-million people or more in 2021. Three of them are in Africa. By 2100, this will have nearly quadrupled to 11 countries out of 23 globally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nigeria\u2019s population, for example, will have more than doubled to 546-million and it will have overtaken the United States as the third most populous country, according to the UN\u2019s projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the end of this century, five of the 10 most populous countries will be in Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<embed src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/13514308\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/embed><div style='width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;'><a class='flourish-credit' href='https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/13514308\/?utm_source=embed&#038;utm_campaign=visualisation\/13514308' target='_top' style='text-decoration:none!important' rel=\"noopener\"><img alt='Made with Flourish' src='https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/made_with_flourish.svg' style='width:105px!important;height:16px!important;border:none!important;margin:0!important;'> <\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reaching a peak<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you were born in the mid-1970s, the world\u2019s population has doubled in your lifetime. Global population is estimated to have reached 8-billion on 15 November 2022, but the rate of growth is beginning to slow. The UN projects that population will peak in 2086, at about 10.4-billion people, and start to decrease. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not so in Africa. The continent\u2019s population has doubled since 1990, from 640-million to 1.4-billion, and it\u2019s expected to nearly triple to 3.9-billion by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/Billions-of-people-1-600x600.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85088\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Negative growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s population has started to shrink. It had a 0% growth rate in 2021 and this is expected to continue to fall into negative growth in the future, according to the UN\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\">data<\/a>. By 2100 (77 years from now), China\u2019s population is estimated to be about 700-million, leaving India as the only \u2018billionaire\u2019 in terms of people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China isn\u2019t the only country whose population has started to shrink. It is one of five G20 member states with shrinking populations. Italy, Japan, Russia and South Korea all had reached 0% growth or negative growth by 2021, according to the UN&#8217;s data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The G20 is a bloc of the world\u2019s 19 biggest economies and the European Union. All but three of the 19 countries will be at zero growth by the end of the century.  The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/g20\/about\/\" target=\"_blank\">G20<\/a> makes up 85% of the world\u2019s gross domestic product and accounts for two-thirds of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In countries, like China, Japan, Italy and Russia, with population growth rates of 0% or less, the birth rate is low and the population is getting older.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, only 14 African countries are projected to show negative population growth in the next 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/G20-growth-rates-3-600x589.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85213\" width=\"450\" height=\"442\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85090\" width=\"540\" height=\"1253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates.png 1080w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates-129x300.png 129w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates-441x1024.png 441w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates-768x1782.png 768w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates-662x1536.png 662w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Africn-growth-rates-883x2048.png 883w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Birth rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Assumptions about births, deaths and migration as used to project population growth. For a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, the birth rate needs to be 2.1 children per woman, according to the UN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2021 the global average was 2.3 children per woman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan\u2019s birth rate is 1.3, China\u2019s is 1.2, Italy\u2019s is 1.3 and Russia\u2019s is 1.5. &nbsp;In fact, according to the UN\u2019s estimates, the birth rate in all European countries is below 2.1. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And even India \u2013 whose population is about to become the world\u2019s biggest \u2013 has a birth rate of 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Africa\u2019s average birth rate in 2021 was 4.3. But there are a number of countries where the birth rate is higher than six children per woman, such as Niger, Chad, Mali, the DRC, Central African Republic and Somalia. In all but a few countries the birth rate is lower than it was in 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/Fertility-rate-5-600x600.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85219\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The young continent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>High birth rates mean that African countries have young populations compared with the rest of the world. The global median age is 30 years old (half the population is 30 or younger), but in Africa, half of the population is aged 19 or younger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Niger is the \u2018youngest\u2019 country in the world with a median age of 14.5. The oldest is the principality of Monaco with a median age of 54.5, followed by Japan with a median age of 48.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.mediahack.co.za\/theoutlier\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/05\/Median-age-1-600x600.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85098\" width=\"450\" height=\"450\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>African countries will have young and expanding workforces that they will be able to tap into. When a country\u2019s population has a proportionately high number of working-age people (15 to 64 years) and a proportionately low number of young and old people, it has a \u2018demographic dividend\u2019 because there are enough people of working age to support the non-working population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1990, at the start of China&#8217;s economic boom, the median age of its population was 23.7, which is only slightly older than that of many African countries now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question is will these countries be able to take advantage of this \u2018demographic dividend\u2019 by providing enough employment for their young population and educating them for the types of jobs needed for the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Africa&#8217;s population is growing at a fast rate and its population is younger than anywhere else.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":85205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,446,1387],"tags":[21,268,269,270,271,272],"newsletter-post":[],"site":[],"class_list":["post-85203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-news","category-the-outlier","tag-africa","tag-china","tag-india","tag-population","tag-united-nations","tag-world-population-prospects"],"acf":{"big_number":null,"big_number_caption":null,"big_number_link":null,"big_number_background":null,"big_number_text_colour":null,"big_number_icon":null,"big_number_wide":null,"featured_chart":null,"flourish_chart_id":null,"flourish_sub_title":null,"flourish_chart_width":null,"is_newsletter_post":null,"post_style":null,"show_on_front":null,"link_through":null,"chart_url":null,"background_colour":null,"text_colour":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85203"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85203\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86554,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85203\/revisions\/86554"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85203"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-post","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-post?post=85203"},{"taxonomy":"site","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/site?post=85203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}