{"id":91092,"date":"2026-03-13T14:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T14:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/?p=91092"},"modified":"2026-03-13T14:44:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T14:44:57","slug":"outlier-148-gdp-cable-theft-hormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/outlier-148-gdp-cable-theft-hormuz\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlier #148: GDP, cable theft, Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"\ud83d\udcb0\"\u00a0Slow growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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South Africa reported its best economic growth in three years in 2025, but 1.1% is not nearly good enough. It falls short of the National Treasury’s predictions of 1.4%. It also lags well behind the IMF’s global estimate of 3.3% and Nigeria’s 4.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP, the total value of goods and services produced, is a measure of economic health. When it grows, jobs are created and investment follows. When it contracts, jobs are lost and investors look elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 1994 and 2007, South Africa averaged 3.6% growth thanks to a commodities boom, an expanding middle-class and a surplus budget in 2007\/08. But loadshedding, the 2008 global recession and state capture dragged the 2008\u20132019 average down to 1.6%. Post-Covid recovery has yet to restore those early highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2025 was South Africa’s Government of National Unity’s first year. The coalition of rival political parties has a target of 3.5% growth by 2030. Economist Sanisha Packirisamy said several structural reforms could push economic growth towards 2% in the coming years. These include shifting electricity generation from Eskom to private sector players adding renewables to the grid; expanding the transmission network, bringing private sector operators into Transnet’s railways and Durban’s Pier 2 terminal, ringfencing water revenue so that it is directed towards infrastructure, making it easier for tourist operators from China and India to enter South Africa, streamlining work visa approvals, digitising the economy, and overhauling municipal governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\ud83d\udd0c\"\u00a0Stolen and vandalised<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Joburg recorded 1,105 incidents of cable theft and vandalism in 2025, roughly three a day. While it\u2019s a major improvement from the 2,283 incidents in 2022, or six a day, it is still a problem for residents and businesses that lose power because of vandalised and stolen cables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loadshedding was behind the rise in cable theft and vandalism in 2022, said City Power, explaining that criminals took \u201cadvantage of the situation when the network [was] \u2018dead\u2019\u201d. Flooding in December 2022 didn\u2019t help either: \u201cfloods exacerbated cable theft and vandalism by washing cables open from trenches.\u201d This left cables \u201cexposed and easy for criminals to cut and steal them,\u201d said City Power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

City Power has implemented a variety of measures to stop vandalism and cable theft:<\/p>\n\n\n\n