{"id":91396,"date":"2026-07-10T20:05:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T20:05:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/?p=91396"},"modified":"2026-07-10T20:05:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T20:05:24","slug":"outlier-163-voter-turnout-parole-officers-visiting-neighbours-pipe-bursts-and-pollution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/2026\/07\/10\/outlier-163-voter-turnout-parole-officers-visiting-neighbours-pipe-bursts-and-pollution\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlier #163: Voter turnout, parole officers, visiting neighbours, pipe bursts and pollution"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\uddf3\ufe0f\u00a0Voter turnout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have four months left until the local government election on 4 November 2026, and if the last local elections are anything to go by, voter turnout is likely to be low in South Africa\u2019s metros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2021, all the metros had a voter turnout below 50%, which means fewer than half of the people who registered to vote actually cast a vote. People were less apathetic in the 2016 elections, where the lowest voter turnout was in Buffalo City, where 56% of the registered voters cast their votes. Nelson Mandela Bay and Cape Town have had the highest voter turnouts of the metros in the past three elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-metros-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91398\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-metros-2.png 810w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-metros-2-400x400.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-metros-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-metros-2-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Countrywide, voter turnout dropped between 2016 and 2021 in all but four municipalities: two in Limpopo (Collins Chabane and Maruleng) and two in the Northern Cape (Kamiesberg and Richtersveld). They are shaded green on the map below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-map-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91397\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-map-2.png 810w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-map-2-400x400.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-map-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Voter-turnout-map-2-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The largest drop in turnout was reported in Mkhambathini in KwaZulu-Natal, followed by Mbombela in Mpumalanga, which both dropped from the 60% range to the 40% range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) survey released in March indicates that voter turnout will be low this year unless interventions are made to encourage people to vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The province with the highest voter turnout overall in 2021 was the Northern Cape at 53.3%, followed by the Western Cape at 48.8% and KwaZulu-Natal at 48.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ICYMI: 5 years of by-election data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you missed last week\u2019s by-election feature you can\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theoutlier.co.za\/features\/byelections0626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">find that here<\/a>. We lay out the data we\u2019ve collected on 432 by-elections since November 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theoutlier.co.za\/features\/byelections0626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read the full featue<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/events.theoutlier.co.za\/events\/july2026\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/otl-15july-v2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91399\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/otl-15july-v2-1.png 960w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/otl-15july-v2-1-400x225.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/otl-15july-v2-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s the ultimate paradox: If our public charging network relies on the Eskom grid, is an electric vehicle truly a &#8220;green&#8221; choice?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More importantly, with current petrol prices and municipal electricity tariffs, what does it realistically cost to &#8220;refuel&#8221; an EV for 100km of driving compared to a standard petrol car? Is it actually saving you money if you don&#8217;t have a massive home solar setup?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next week at\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/events.theoutlier.co.za\/events\/july2026\">Out to Lunch with The Outlier<\/a><\/em>, we\u2019re putting these exact questions to tech journalist Nafisa Akabor and EV enthusiast William Kelly. We\u2019re breaking down the actual rands and cents of running an EV in SA today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcc6 Wednesday, 15 July 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udd51 1:00 PM SAST<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcbb Webinar<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To join us, book your spot\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/events.theoutlier.co.za\/events\/july2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you had a R500,000 budget today, would you buy an EV, a hybrid, or would you stay with petrol? Email your response to\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:gemma.ritchie@theoutlier.co.za\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gemma.ritchie@theoutlier.co.za<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve run seven Out to Lunches in 2026, and we would love to hear from you. Please answer this\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mail.beehiiv.com\/ss\/c\/u001.ByAnb_-_yVxua3H20Dt5AAVn-scNs1lU_-Hbcf7F6o6_6Tg8UWIoaYTbKEwdosiCfgR6WBXX_WCD_M-tHje6F_tV8GxsGeb3rGImMXl-mqGyOimD4E2uMErUfmQDfXxgT6mndrrcGKnzqDoMvPGzpQs5reAQaCiT2D4u1RBY3AFmV4Si9JqkvKDzP_blrM3_dUwi9kx4vvl1jVVa8N_x38CdYpniwdQCzn7Bs9ZIPBMxwBH_owLR_PMR9JeMwL_2wFY3ufFLgjEl4A79HqAU3P4XSfQS9kR6Vzp4CxHPvd9qr7hkYpvA6zSfncCq771dUCE_aIZFgeXWveVwTbN-hxjFGaC1b37JGMia1iWcw-zy21KTuJdNXkP8Ubn3knMX\/4s7\/ZRgKVdz9SxOYiLST-6mjuQ\/h8\/h001.SXG3oMKStE6RqB2p2kdUt-Pdl8zXYwMSUi7PmMcko40\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">super quick survey<\/a>\u00a0on how you are finding the talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2708\ufe0f Tourist boom<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/EN_-Tourists-in-May-v2-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/EN_-Tourists-in-May-v2-2.png 810w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/EN_-Tourists-in-May-v2-2-400x400.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/EN_-Tourists-in-May-v2-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/EN_-Tourists-in-May-v2-2-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the first five months of this year, 4.8-million tourists arrived in South Africa. It\u2019s the highest number for this period since at least 2018, which suggests 2026 could be a bumper tourism year. But most of the tourists are arriving from South Africa\u2019s neighbours in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re using January to May because that&#8217;s the most recent data Stats SA has released, and the data is telling. SADC arrivals over this period didn&#8217;t just bounce back from the 2020 pandemic. They have overtaken pre-Covid levels, up 12.8% on 2018&#8217;s January-to-May total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overseas tourism hasn&#8217;t quite made the same comeback. It&#8217;s still down almost 8% on 2018 numbers, even as global travel has broadly recovered. SADC tourists now make up 76% of all arrivals to South Africa, up from around 73% in 2018. South Africa&#8217;s tourism boom, in other words, is really a regional one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfd9\ufe0f\u00a0State of Joburg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/43.-8-July-2026-OCN-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/43.-8-July-2026-OCN-logo.png 810w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/43.-8-July-2026-OCN-logo-400x400.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/43.-8-July-2026-OCN-logo-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/43.-8-July-2026-OCN-logo-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Almost one in four people surveyed in Johannesburg experienced water and sewage pipe bursts, according to the<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mail.beehiiv.com\/ss\/c\/u001.V3FpAY5NS6Vq4HeLFE7byc2k_ZGxdYkcv-e78boF92BSM5tRvyGHuIHzozmci5reQERtdbUvw5JnvbzDy2ncBAJbP6plXvTsnjWYe13owhWYBmo4UBBINyz6lgyv8F4JvdxUSHsosi0pOU1cRGl0_uHVBiQspEM9xdajFB_K5FowaGDxtx6pbjZmGANWe4dq6dVTuzPfPkXfgLwUR7XULgCKKI9--N2RsVaubF5mrFU3NE0BnrpaQxCIGoUCFE9DSslyiIMBCoCeGyUj1eFcIN_aAZIQymsP7pESkfmkw9Tz3i8HslruBwAwzBUqcNjThtPDxWMN1Btwz4sSjDrNteInakORoSn9w25SxUxew3nNl54pZ4ZF3eCtK88fU81f\/4s7\/ZRgKVdz9SxOYiLST-6mjuQ\/h9\/h001.IESqVA3e1xy2aaf3AQuUJO-zGJViixzjVegro87_rq0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO)<\/a>. The next most common human-induced harm was air pollution, affecting 19% of respondents, followed by tremors and sinkholes (17%) \u2013 a legacy of Johannesburg&#8217;s dolomitic ground and mining \u2013 then water pollution (8%) and fire (7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The GCRO attributes human-induced disasters to ageing, poorly maintained infrastructure, industrial activity near residential areas and limited capacity to prevent or recover from failures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taken together, these five harms, pipe bursts, air and water pollution, tremors and sinkholes, and fire, show a starkly uneven geography across the city. Reported damage is concentrated in Soweto and the CBD, both near industrial activity, where at least 75% of residents surveyed reported experiencing some form of human induced-harm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even when households face the same disaster, the GCRO notes, the impact is different based on the quality of the house, the family\u2019s financial resources, and their capacity to recover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Produced in partnership with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ourcitynews.co.za\/joburg-by-numbers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Our City News<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udea8 Drowning in cases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10-July-2026-GroundUp-v2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10-July-2026-GroundUp-v2-1.png 810w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10-July-2026-GroundUp-v2-1-400x400.png 400w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10-July-2026-GroundUp-v2-1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10-July-2026-GroundUp-v2-1-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">South Africa\u2019s parole officers are overburdened. On average across the country, there are 87 parolees\/probationers per monitoring officer. The Department of Correctional Services\u2019 ideal ratio is 30 per officer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Four years ago, the ratio was 58 parolees per officer. The number of monitoring officials nationwide has halved since 2022, from 1,873 to 933, while the caseload has only slightly diminished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Eastern Cape all have more than 100 parolees\/probationers per officer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When a prisoner is granted parole or probation, they are assigned a parole monitoring officer. Usually, they will remain under the supervision of the parole officer until the end of their prison sentence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The parole officer is supposed to make contact via telephone and pay visits to the parolee\u2019s home or workplace to ensure that parole conditions are being met. Parolees may not move house without permission and must participate in rehabilitation programmes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of the 82,093 parolees\/probationers in the department\u2019s current case load, 29,320 (35%) are absconders, and 52,860 are \u201cactive\u201d parolees or probationers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Read the full\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/groundup.org.za\/article\/sas-parole-officers-drowning-in-cases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GroundUp<\/a>\u00a0article here.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theoutlier.co.za\/newsletter-references?utm_source=outlierafrica.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=132-this-week-in-charts-31-october-2025&amp;_bhlid=4d3abe68c939bd5241b17df047afbf40ad35b127\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click here for a link to all references for this newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91397,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1386,1387,1380],"tags":[50,1473,40,1472,257],"newsletter-post":[],"site":[],"class_list":["post-91396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","category-the-outlier","category-this-week-in-charts","tag-johannesburg","tag-sadc","tag-south-africa","tag-tourists","tag-voter-turnout"],"acf":{"big_number":"","big_number_caption":"","big_number_link":"","big_number_background":"","big_number_text_colour":"#000000","big_number_icon":false,"big_number_wide":"yes","featured_chart":false,"flourish_chart_id":"","flourish_sub_title":"","flourish_chart_width":"medium","is_newsletter_post":"No","post_style":"bc","show_on_front":"Yes","link_through":"Yes","chart_url":"","background_colour":"#0089AA","text_colour":"#FFFFFF"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91396"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91404,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91396\/revisions\/91404"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91396"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-post","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-post?post=91396"},{"taxonomy":"site","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outliereditor.co.za\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/site?post=91396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}