Welcome to issue #1 of Outlier Renew.
I think it’s fair to say that I’m mildly obsessed with renewable energy. I’m not an engineer, so it’s not the technical details that appeal to me. It’s two things: they offer a ray of hope in all the gloomy news about climate change and they have helped drag South Africa out of the dark days of loadshedding.
I’m under no illusion that South Africans have built more than 7GW of rooftop solar because of their concern for the climate. It just made economic sense. The chart below from Our World in Data shows how the price of solar and wind has plunged over the past 15 years.
We live in a country with some of the best solar resources in the world, so we’d be crazy not to take advantage of it. Plus wind is clean and there’s something monumental and awe-inspiring about wind turbines.
The pace at which renewable energy projects are being developed in South Africa is also awe-inspiring, and hard to keep up with, which is why we’ve decided to start Outlier Renew. We’ve been collecting data about independent power projects for the past few years, but we feel it’s worth paying closer attention. These projects are bringing billions of rands of investment into the country.
Outlier Renew is more than a newsletter, we are compiling resources: data sets of the projects and companies that are involved in the sector and reports that pull this information together. We’ll also make charts, because data storytelling is our thing.
Our first report covers battery energy storage. If you’re an Outlier member you can download a copy of the report for free in the new Outlier Members section. If you’re not a member you can buy a copy of the full report, or become a member to get this and future reports for free.
For me, renewable energy is a good news story. It’s a way of looking forward to a cleaner future. I hope to share my enthusiasm and unpack how the sector is changing.
Laura
laura@theoutlier.co.za
Battery report
Today we’re publishing the Outlier Renew Battery Energy Storage in South Africa 2025 report. This is the first of a planned series of reports on the renewable energy sector.
The report is a comprehensive review of the state of battery energy storage in the country and includes data on 35 major battery storage projects in the country with information on progress, developers, timelines and more.
News Wrap
Bring on the renewables
South Africa could add up to 75GW of solar and wind capacity to the energy mix by 2039 if the new Integrated Resource Plan 2025 (IRP 2025) is implemented. Renewables make up 70% of the 105GW to be added in the next 14 years, according to the plan that was gazetted last week.
An infographic produced by the electricity and energy department shows that the plan is to add 34GW of grid-connected wind and 25GW of photovoltaic grid-tied solar by 2039. Another 16GW will come from distributed generation, which is mainly rooftop solar.
Coal’s dominance will be reduced. It has decreased already from 72% of the installed capacity in 2018 to 59% in 2025, yet it still accounts for 75% of the electricity produced, according to IRP 2025.
There is 41GW of coal capacity now, but the plan is to drop 8GW of that between 2029 and 2030 and then another 15GW after 2034.
As Terence Creamer, the editor of the Engineering News, notes: “There will always be a mix of technologies. However, in the South African context, this phrase has mainly come to mean three things: retaining coal for as long as possible; making room for gas and forcing in nuclear.”
The plan adds 6GW of gas by 2030 and another 10GW by 2039 and 5,200MW of nuclear by 2039.
The renewables are already here
This year’s South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey shows that there is 72GW of renewable energy projects at advanced stages of development that could be ready to connect to the grid in the next seven years, says the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA). This is more than the 59GW target for 2039 in the IRP2025 and close the 2042 target of 71.8GW.
The annual survey is led by the National Transmission Company of SA in collaboration with the SAWEA and the SA Photovoltaic Industry Association.
“The findings reinforce the urgent need to fast-track transmission infrastructure, modernise grid operations and adopt flexible planning frameworks that can accommodate faster renewable uptake than currently envisioned by the IRP,” says SAWEA.
Featured
On the subject of grid capacity
The IRP 2025 also envisions 3,100MW of battery storage in the electricity mix by 2030. The information we’ve collected about battery storage projects being planned or in development by independent power producers (IPPs) and Eskom indicates that we’re 80% of the way to meeting that target, if those projects are finished in the next few years.
Eighteen IPPs have won bids to add battery storage systems to the grid. These projects have brought in investment of R39-billion, according to the IPP Office. And they will eventually add 1,700MW of capacity to the grid when they start operating. Add Eskom’s battery storage projects and the total comes to 2,300MW.
Big numbers
73 wind and solar PV projects with a capacity of 100MW or more have been registered with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa): 26 wind and 47 solar PV.
Two of them are huge 475MW solar PV facilities. One is near Dealesville in the Free State, the other is near Modimolle in Limpopo.
But the biggest project registered is a 505MW combination of solar PV and wind called Great Karoo Phase 1 in the Northern Cape – 225 solar PV and 280 wind, says Nersa.
In October the total capacity of wind and solar projects registered with Nersa passed 16GW.
