This week’s newsletter is a wrap of some of the top stories of the week.
🚙 Budget fuel
This week’s budget presentation was a little overshadowed by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to the White House and a lot has been written about it already. So we’re not going too deep on this, except for a quick look at the 16c/litre fuel levy increase announced. The levy on fuel will now be R4.01 per litre. This is the first increase since 2021/22 when the levy jumped from R3.70 to R3.85.
While the 16c increase is just another charge for some of us, it will likely impact poorer communities more. When the fuel price rises, it hits South Africa’s working class the hardest. According to the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group’s Household Affordability Index, a person earning minimum wage and taking two taxis to and from work can spend more than a third of their monthly income on transport.
Also fuel costs increase the price of most other goods and services as they push up transport costs across the board. So the 16c increase will probably have more far-reaching impacts than just the extra rands at the petrol pump.
The good news, for now, is that despite increases to the general fuel levy and carbon tax, the petrol price is expected to drop in June, thanks to a lower basic fuel price.
For government though the increased fuel levy is projected to bring in an additional R23-billion over the next three financial years.
🚨 Murder most foul
The main show this week was Ramaphosa’s trip to the White House to meet Donald Trump. The big topic of discussion was the supposed white Afrikaner farmer ‘genocide’. It’s an emotive issue that is being exploited to the max by Donald Trump.
I don’t think there is any dispute that South Africa has a crime problem. But a white genocide? I’m no expert, but Gareth Newham at the Institute for Security Studies is: “The idea of a ‘white genocide’ taking place in South Africa is completely false.” – Read more.
There are many numbers available on how many white farmers have been killed. Officially, the South African Police Service’s statistics found that in the last quarter of 2024 there were at least 96 murders recorded on farms, plots and small holdings, out of a total of more than 6,000 murders over the same period. Murders on agricultural land is a very broad definition and will undoubtably include farm workers and local residents that could not be considered ‘white farmers’.
In fact, more people are murdered in a pub, tavern or bottle store than on farm land. That in itself is cause for pause and consideration.
✈️ Fair trade
The other major topic in the White House, and the real reason for Ramaphosa’s trip to the US, was trade tariffs.
The United States is South Africa’s second-largest export market after China. Last year, South Africa exported goods worth R157-billion to the United States – just below the R220-billion exported to China.
Now, South Africa’s trade delegation is negotiating for more favourable tariffs ahead of the July deadline, when a 90-day freeze on a proposed 31% import tariff comes to an end. Currently, a 10% import tariff applies to goods exported from South Africa to the US.
We consulted Harvard’s Atlas of Economic Complexity (love that name) to see what South Africa exports to the United States. Their most recent data is for 2023. Turns out, platinum group metals make up 25% of exports (platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium and osmium). In the chart below, they are separated into smaller categories.
The next biggest export category is articles made of precious metals. In fact, precious metals and stones, which include gold and diamonds, make up nearly half of our exports. Then come vehicles (13%) – petrol and diesel cars combined make up 10% of SA’s exports to the US.
Citrus fruits are the biggest agricultural exports to the US.
🛒 Basket case
Speaking of Trump (and groceries), SA consumer data released this week showed a consumer price index (CPI) increase from 2.7% in March to 2.8% in April 2025. The main drivers of the increase were housing and utilities, food, beverages, tobacco, and restaurants and accommodation services.
The rise in food prices was “mainly due to higher meat prices, particularly for beef products such as stewing beef, mince, and steak,” according to Statistics South Africa.
But what else is costing you more now than it did a year ago?
Solar data
One of the growing imports from China to South Africa has been solar panels. Imports have increased rapidly, especially over the past two years. In DataDesk we have data on solar panel imports for both South Africa as well as the broader Africa.
DataDesk is The Outlier’s data repository. We’ve recently made a public version of DataDesk which is now in open public beta as we work on new datasets and more features. The open public beta is only in effect during this development phase so take a look now and let us know what you like, dislike, would like. Your feedback is important.